Vysočina Jihlava II 2–3 Zlín II: Result & Stats

Vysočina Jihlava II

FT

2 – 3

Zlín II

8/16/2020

3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 2Stadion Na Stoupách

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Vysočina Jihlava II33%

×Draw22%

Zlín II45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vysočina Jihlava IIExpected goals in this matchZlín II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.86

Vysočina Jihlava II

1.58

Zlín II

1.86

Zlín II creates 18% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 83 away

1.29

creates per match

1.01

2.71

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Vysočina Jihlava II

1.29

Zlín II

1.01

allows per match

Vysočina Jihlava II

2.71

Zlín II

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vysočina Jihlava II+0.00on par

Zlín II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vysočina Jihlava II ↓

Zlín II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Vysočina Jihlava II or draw

55%

Vysočina Jihlava II or Zlín II

78%

Draw or Zlín II

67%

Winning margin

Vysočina Jihlava II wins by 2+

16%

Zlín II wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Vysočina Jihlava II 1+ goals

79%

Vysočina Jihlava II 2+ goals

47%

Vysočina Jihlava II 3+ goals

21%

Zlín II 1+ goals

84%

Zlín II 2+ goals

55%

Zlín II 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Vysočina Jihlava II (draw refunded)

43%

Zlín II (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vysočina Jihlava II at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.71 · 21 matches

Zlín II away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.86 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vysočina Jihlava II attack 1.29 + Zlín II defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.58

Zlín II attack 1.01 + Vysočina Jihlava II defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Vysočina Jihlava II scores more

33%

level

22%

Zlín II scores more

45%

Zlín II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Zlín II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff