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Zlín II vs Vsetín — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Zlín II
Zlín II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Vsetín
Vsetín
10/26/20253. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 13Stadion Letna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Zlín II47%
×Draw24%
Vsetín29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zlín II
1.69
Vsetín
1.27

Zlín II creates 33% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 17 away

creates per match

Zlín II
1.72
Vsetín
1.18

allows per match

Zlín II
1.36
Vsetín
1.65

finishing

Zlín II+0.00on par
Vsetín+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zlín II ↓

Vsetín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Zlín II or draw
71%
Zlín II or Vsetín
76%
Draw or Vsetín
53%

Winning margin

Zlín II wins by 2+
25%
Vsetín wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Zlín II 1+ goals
82%
Zlín II 2+ goals
50%
Zlín II 3+ goals
24%
Vsetín 1+ goals
72%
Vsetín 2+ goals
36%
Vsetín 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Zlín II (draw refunded)
62%
Vsetín (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zlín II at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.36 · 81 matches

Vsetín away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zlín II attack 1.72 + Vsetín defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.69

Vsetín attack 1.18 + Zlín II defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Zlín II scores more
47%
level
24%
Vsetín scores more
29%

Zlín II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Zlín II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - MSFL: Zlín II 3–0 Vsetín

Zlín II beat Vsetín 3-0 in 3. liga - MSFL on October 26, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Letna in Zlin.