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Vsetín vs Zlín II — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Vsetín
Vsetín
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Zlín II
Zlín II
5/30/20263. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 30Stadion Tyrsovka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Vsetín49%
×Draw23%
Zlín II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vsetín
1.79
Zlín II
1.30

Vsetín creates 38% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 83 away

creates per match

Vsetín
1.71
Zlín II
1.01

allows per match

Vsetín
1.59
Zlín II
1.86

finishing

Vsetín+0.00on par
Zlín II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vsetín ↓

Zlín II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Vsetín or draw
72%
Vsetín or Zlín II
77%
Draw or Zlín II
51%

Winning margin

Vsetín wins by 2+
27%
Zlín II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Vsetín 1+ goals
83%
Vsetín 2+ goals
53%
Vsetín 3+ goals
26%
Zlín II 1+ goals
73%
Zlín II 2+ goals
37%
Zlín II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Vsetín (draw refunded)
64%
Zlín II (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vsetín at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

Zlín II away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.86 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vsetín attack 1.71 + Zlín II defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.79

Zlín II attack 1.01 + Vsetín defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Vsetín scores more
49%
level
23%
Zlín II scores more
28%

Vsetín at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Vsetín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - MSFL: Vsetín 1–1 Zlín II

Vsetín and Zlín II drew 1-1 in 3. liga - MSFL on May 30, 2026.

The match was played at Stadion Tyrsovka in Vsetin.