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Zlín II vs Viktoria Otrokovice — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Zlín II
Zlín II
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Viktoria Otrokovice
Viktoria Otrokovice
5/28/20233. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 30Areál Vlastislava Marečka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Zlín II49%
×Draw23%
Viktoria Otrokovice29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zlín II
1.85
Viktoria Otrokovice
1.37

Zlín II creates 35% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 68 away

creates per match

Zlín II
1.72
Viktoria Otrokovice
1.37

allows per match

Zlín II
1.36
Viktoria Otrokovice
1.99

finishing

Zlín II+0.00on par
Viktoria Otrokovice+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zlín II ↓

Viktoria Otrokovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Zlín II or draw
71%
Zlín II or Viktoria Otrokovice
77%
Draw or Viktoria Otrokovice
51%

Winning margin

Zlín II wins by 2+
27%
Viktoria Otrokovice wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Zlín II 1+ goals
84%
Zlín II 2+ goals
55%
Zlín II 3+ goals
28%
Viktoria Otrokovice 1+ goals
75%
Viktoria Otrokovice 2+ goals
40%
Viktoria Otrokovice 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Zlín II (draw refunded)
63%
Viktoria Otrokovice (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zlín II at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.36 · 81 matches

Viktoria Otrokovice away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.99 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zlín II attack 1.72 + Viktoria Otrokovice defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.85

Viktoria Otrokovice attack 1.37 + Zlín II defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Zlín II scores more
49%
level
23%
Viktoria Otrokovice scores more
29%

Zlín II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Zlín II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
D. Cervinka← D. Cervinka
41'
D. Cervinka
62'
R. Russmann
66'
M. Slouk← M. Slouk
66'
T. Fojtu← T. Fojtu
70'
M. Guzik← M. Guzik
86'
P. Chovan← P. Nemec
88'
S. Petruta← S. Petruta
88'
←
90+2'
D. Rapavy← R. Smekal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zlín II vs Viktoria Otrokovice

Zlín II and Viktoria Otrokovice drew 0-0 in 3. liga - MSFL on May 28, 2023.

The match was played at Areál Vlastislava Marečka in Zlín.