Zlín II 2–2 Sigma Olomouc II: Result & Stats

Zlín II

FT

2 – 2

Sigma Olomouc II

10/8/2021

3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 11Stadion Letná

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Zlín II30%

×Draw23%

Sigma Olomouc II47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zlín IIExpected goals in this matchSigma Olomouc II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.79

Zlín II

1.39

Sigma Olomouc II

1.79

Sigma Olomouc II creates 29% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 49 away

1.72

creates per match

2.22

1.36

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Zlín II

1.72

Sigma Olomouc II

2.22

allows per match

Zlín II

1.36

Sigma Olomouc II

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zlín II+0.00on par

Sigma Olomouc II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zlín II ↓

Sigma Olomouc II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Zlín II or draw

53%

Zlín II or Sigma Olomouc II

77%

Draw or Sigma Olomouc II

70%

Winning margin

Zlín II wins by 2+

13%

Sigma Olomouc II wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Zlín II 1+ goals

75%

Zlín II 2+ goals

40%

Zlín II 3+ goals

16%

Sigma Olomouc II 1+ goals

83%

Sigma Olomouc II 2+ goals

53%

Sigma Olomouc II 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Zlín II (draw refunded)

39%

Sigma Olomouc II (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zlín II at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.36 · 81 matches

Sigma Olomouc II away — creates 2.22, concedes 1.06 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zlín II attack 1.72 + Sigma Olomouc II defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.39

Sigma Olomouc II attack 2.22 + Zlín II defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Zlín II scores more

30%

level

23%

Sigma Olomouc II scores more

47%

Sigma Olomouc II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sigma Olomouc II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff