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Sigma Olomouc II vs Zlín II — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Sigma Olomouc II
Sigma Olomouc II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Zlín II
Zlín II
5/15/20223. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 28Andrúv stadion hřiště č. 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Sigma Olomouc II62%
×Draw21%
Zlín II17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sigma Olomouc II
2.02
Zlín II
0.97

Sigma Olomouc II creates 108% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 83 away

creates per match

Sigma Olomouc II
2.17
Zlín II
1.01

allows per match

Sigma Olomouc II
0.93
Zlín II
1.86

finishing

Sigma Olomouc II+0.00on par
Zlín II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sigma Olomouc II ↓

Zlín II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Sigma Olomouc II or draw
83%
Sigma Olomouc II or Zlín II
79%
Draw or Zlín II
38%

Winning margin

Sigma Olomouc II wins by 2+
37%
Zlín II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sigma Olomouc II 1+ goals
87%
Sigma Olomouc II 2+ goals
60%
Sigma Olomouc II 3+ goals
33%
Zlín II 1+ goals
62%
Zlín II 2+ goals
25%
Zlín II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sigma Olomouc II (draw refunded)
78%
Zlín II (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sigma Olomouc II at home — creates 2.17, concedes 0.93 · 46 matches

Zlín II away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.86 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sigma Olomouc II attack 2.17 + Zlín II defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.02

Zlín II attack 1.01 + Sigma Olomouc II defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Sigma Olomouc II scores more
62%
level
21%
Zlín II scores more
17%

Sigma Olomouc II at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Sigma Olomouc II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sigma Olomouc II vs Zlín II

Sigma Olomouc II beat Zlín II 2-1 in 3. liga - MSFL on May 15, 2022.

The match was played at Andrúv stadion hřiště č. 2 in Olomouc.