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Zlín II vs Odra Petřkovice — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Zlín II
Zlín II
CANC
15:00
Odra Petřkovice
Odra Petřkovice
4/25/20213. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 25Areál Vlastislava Marečka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Zlín II34%
×Draw24%
Odra Petřkovice42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zlín II
1.40
Odra Petřkovice
1.60

Odra Petřkovice creates 14% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 12 away

creates per match

Zlín II
1.72
Odra Petřkovice
1.83

allows per match

Zlín II
1.36
Odra Petřkovice
1.08

finishing

Zlín II+0.00on par
Odra Petřkovice+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zlín II ↓

Odra Petřkovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Zlín II or draw
58%
Zlín II or Odra Petřkovice
76%
Draw or Odra Petřkovice
66%

Winning margin

Zlín II wins by 2+
15%
Odra Petřkovice wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Zlín II 1+ goals
75%
Zlín II 2+ goals
41%
Zlín II 3+ goals
17%
Odra Petřkovice 1+ goals
80%
Odra Petřkovice 2+ goals
47%
Odra Petřkovice 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Zlín II (draw refunded)
44%
Odra Petřkovice (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zlín II at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.36 · 81 matches

Odra Petřkovice away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zlín II attack 1.72 + Odra Petřkovice defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.40

Odra Petřkovice attack 1.83 + Zlín II defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Zlín II scores more
34%
level
24%
Odra Petřkovice scores more
42%

Odra Petřkovice at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Odra Petřkovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zlín II face Odra Petřkovice (3. liga - MSFL)

3. liga - MSFL returns with Zlín II hosting Odra Petřkovice. Match starts April 25, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Zlín II host Odra Petřkovice at Areál Vlastislava Marečka.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.