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Odra Petřkovice vs Zlín II — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Odra Petřkovice
Odra Petřkovice
CANC
15:00
Zlín II
Zlín II
6/7/20203. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 30Stadion Petřkovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Odra Petřkovice53%
×Draw24%
Zlín II23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Odra Petřkovice
1.75
Zlín II
1.06

Odra Petřkovice creates 65% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 83 away

creates per match

Odra Petřkovice
1.65
Zlín II
1.01

allows per match

Odra Petřkovice
1.12
Zlín II
1.86

finishing

Odra Petřkovice+0.00on par
Zlín II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odra Petřkovice ↓

Zlín II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Odra Petřkovice or draw
77%
Odra Petřkovice or Zlín II
76%
Draw or Zlín II
47%

Winning margin

Odra Petřkovice wins by 2+
30%
Zlín II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Odra Petřkovice 1+ goals
83%
Odra Petřkovice 2+ goals
52%
Odra Petřkovice 3+ goals
25%
Zlín II 1+ goals
65%
Zlín II 2+ goals
29%
Zlín II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Odra Petřkovice (draw refunded)
70%
Zlín II (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odra Petřkovice at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

Zlín II away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.86 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odra Petřkovice attack 1.65 + Zlín II defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.75

Zlín II attack 1.01 + Odra Petřkovice defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Odra Petřkovice scores more
53%
level
24%
Zlín II scores more
23%

Odra Petřkovice at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Odra Petřkovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Odra Petřkovice host Zlín II

June 7, 2020: Odra Petřkovice take on Zlín II in 3. liga - MSFL. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Odra Petřkovice host Zlín II at Stadion Petřkovice.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.