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Zlín II vs Blansko — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Zlín II
Zlín II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Blansko
Blansko
8/13/20233. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 2Areál Vlastislava Marečka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Zlín II51%
×Draw23%
Blansko26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zlín II
1.84
Blansko
1.27

Zlín II creates 45% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 77 away

creates per match

Zlín II
1.72
Blansko
1.17

allows per match

Zlín II
1.36
Blansko
1.97

finishing

Zlín II+0.00on par
Blansko+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zlín II ↓

Blansko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Zlín II or draw
74%
Zlín II or Blansko
77%
Draw or Blansko
49%

Winning margin

Zlín II wins by 2+
28%
Blansko wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Zlín II 1+ goals
84%
Zlín II 2+ goals
55%
Zlín II 3+ goals
28%
Blansko 1+ goals
72%
Blansko 2+ goals
36%
Blansko 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Zlín II (draw refunded)
66%
Blansko (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zlín II at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.36 · 81 matches

Blansko away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.97 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zlín II attack 1.72 + Blansko defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.84

Blansko attack 1.17 + Zlín II defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Zlín II scores more
51%
level
23%
Blansko scores more
26%

Zlín II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Zlín II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zlín II vs Blansko

Zlín II beat Blansko 1-0 in 3. liga - MSFL on August 13, 2023.

The match was played at Areál Vlastislava Marečka in Zlín.