Blansko 2–1 Zlín II: Result & Stats

Blansko

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Zlín II

3/16/2024

3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 19UMT Mlýnská

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Blansko50%

×Draw23%

Zlín II27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlanskoExpected goals in this matchZlín II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.34

Blansko

1.89

Zlín II

1.34

Blansko creates 41% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 83 away

1.91

creates per match

1.01

1.67

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Blansko

1.91

Zlín II

1.01

allows per match

Blansko

1.67

Zlín II

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blansko+0.00on par

Zlín II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blansko ↓

Zlín II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Blansko or draw

73%

Blansko or Zlín II

77%

Draw or Zlín II

50%

Winning margin

Blansko wins by 2+

28%

Zlín II wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Blansko 1+ goals

85%

Blansko 2+ goals

56%

Blansko 3+ goals

29%

Zlín II 1+ goals

74%

Zlín II 2+ goals

39%

Zlín II 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Blansko (draw refunded)

65%

Zlín II (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blansko at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.67 · 78 matches

Zlín II away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.86 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blansko attack 1.91 + Zlín II defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.89

Zlín II attack 1.01 + Blansko defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Blansko scores more

50%

level

23%

Zlín II scores more

27%

Blansko at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Blansko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff