Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II 1–0 Slovan Levice

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Slovan Levice

6/5/2022

3. liga - West · West - 30Futbalový štadión na Levickej ulici

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II72%

×Draw17%

Slovan Levice12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé IIExpected goals in this matchSlovan Levice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.46

0.88

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II

2.46

Slovan Levice

0.88

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II creates 180% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 17 away

1.58

creates per match

0.47

1.29

allows per match

3.35

creates per match

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II

1.58

Slovan Levice

0.47

allows per match

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II

1.29

Slovan Levice

3.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II+0.00on par

Slovan Levice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II ↓

Slovan Levice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II or draw

88%

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II or Slovan Levice

83%

Draw or Slovan Levice

28%

Winning margin

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II wins by 2+

49%

Slovan Levice wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II 1+ goals

91%

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II 2+ goals

70%

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II 3+ goals

44%

Slovan Levice 1+ goals

59%

Slovan Levice 2+ goals

22%

Slovan Levice 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II (draw refunded)

86%

Slovan Levice (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.29 · 24 matches

Slovan Levice away — creates 0.47, concedes 3.35 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II attack 1.58 + Slovan Levice defence 3.35 → ÷2 → 2.46

Slovan Levice attack 0.47 + Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II scores more

72%

level

17%

Slovan Levice scores more

12%

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff