Slovan Levice 0–1 Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II

Slovan Levice

FT

0 – 1

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II

10/31/2021

3. liga - West · West - 13Futbalový štadión Levice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Slovan Levice57%

×Draw23%

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slovan LeviceExpected goals in this matchZl. Moravce-Vrablé II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.00

Slovan Levice

1.84

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II

1.00

Slovan Levice creates 84% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 25 away

1.12

creates per match

0.72

1.29

allows per match

2.56

creates per match

Slovan Levice

1.12

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II

0.72

allows per match

Slovan Levice

1.29

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II

2.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slovan Levice+0.00on par

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Levice ↓

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Slovan Levice or draw

80%

Slovan Levice or Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II

77%

Draw or Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II

43%

Winning margin

Slovan Levice wins by 2+

33%

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Slovan Levice 1+ goals

84%

Slovan Levice 2+ goals

55%

Slovan Levice 3+ goals

28%

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II 1+ goals

63%

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II 2+ goals

26%

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Slovan Levice (draw refunded)

74%

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Levice at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II away — creates 0.72, concedes 2.56 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Levice attack 1.12 + Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 1.84

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II attack 0.72 + Slovan Levice defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Slovan Levice scores more

57%

level

23%

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II scores more

20%

Slovan Levice at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Slovan Levice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff