Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II vs Slovan Duslo Šaľa — 3. liga - West 2020

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II
FT
0 – 5
Slovan Duslo Šaľa
Slovan Duslo Šaľa
9/26/20213. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 8Futbalový štadión na Levickej ulici

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II46%
×Draw24%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II
1.65
Slovan Duslo Šaľa
1.30

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II creates 27% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 85 away

creates per match

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II
1.58
Slovan Duslo Šaľa
1.31

allows per match

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II
1.29
Slovan Duslo Šaľa
1.71

finishing

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II+0.00on par
Slovan Duslo Šaľa+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II ↓

Slovan Duslo Šaľa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II or draw
70%
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II or Slovan Duslo Šaľa
76%
Draw or Slovan Duslo Šaľa
54%

Winning margin

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II wins by 2+
24%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II 1+ goals
81%
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II 2+ goals
49%
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II 3+ goals
23%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa 1+ goals
73%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa 2+ goals
37%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II (draw refunded)
60%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.29 · 24 matches

Slovan Duslo Šaľa away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.71 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II attack 1.58 + Slovan Duslo Šaľa defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.65

Slovan Duslo Šaľa attack 1.31 + Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II scores more
46%
level
24%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa scores more
30%

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - West: Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II 0–5 Slovan Duslo Šaľa

Slovan Duslo Šaľa beat Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II 5-0 in 3. liga - West on September 26, 2021.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión na Levickej ulici in Vráble.