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Slovan Duslo Šaľa vs Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II — 3. liga - West 2020

Slovan Duslo Šaľa
Slovan Duslo Šaľa
CANC
14:30
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II
5/16/20213. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Slovan Duslo Šaľa68%
×Draw18%
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan Duslo Šaľa
2.38
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II
0.98

Slovan Duslo Šaľa creates 143% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 25 away

creates per match

Slovan Duslo Šaľa
2.20
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II
0.72

allows per match

Slovan Duslo Šaľa
1.24
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II
2.56

finishing

Slovan Duslo Šaľa+0.00on par
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Duslo Šaľa ↓

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Slovan Duslo Šaľa or draw
86%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa or Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II
82%
Draw or Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II
32%

Winning margin

Slovan Duslo Šaľa wins by 2+
45%
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Slovan Duslo Šaľa 1+ goals
91%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa 2+ goals
68%
Slovan Duslo Šaľa 3+ goals
42%
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II 1+ goals
62%
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II 2+ goals
26%
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Slovan Duslo Šaľa (draw refunded)
83%
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Duslo Šaľa at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.24 · 85 matches

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II away — creates 0.72, concedes 2.56 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Duslo Šaľa attack 2.20 + Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.38

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II attack 0.72 + Slovan Duslo Šaľa defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Slovan Duslo Šaľa scores more
68%
level
18%
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II scores more
14%

Slovan Duslo Šaľa at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Slovan Duslo Šaľa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Slovan Duslo Šaľa vs Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II — Match Preview

Slovan Duslo Šaľa face Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II on May 16, 2021 in this 3. liga - West fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.