Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II vs Marcelová — 3. liga - West 2020

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II
CANC
14:00
Marcelová
Marcelová
3/28/20213. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 18Futbalový štadión na Levickej ulici

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II50%
×Draw23%
Marcelová27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II
1.81
Marcelová
1.29

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II creates 40% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 24 away

creates per match

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II
1.58
Marcelová
1.29

allows per match

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II
1.29
Marcelová
2.04

finishing

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II+0.00on par
Marcelová+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II ↓

Marcelová →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II or draw
73%
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II or Marcelová
77%
Draw or Marcelová
50%

Winning margin

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II wins by 2+
27%
Marcelová wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II 1+ goals
84%
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II 2+ goals
54%
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II 3+ goals
27%
Marcelová 1+ goals
72%
Marcelová 2+ goals
37%
Marcelová 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II (draw refunded)
64%
Marcelová (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.29 · 24 matches

Marcelová away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.04 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II attack 1.58 + Marcelová defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.81

Marcelová attack 1.29 + Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II scores more
50%
level
23%
Marcelová scores more
27%

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II vs Marcelová — Match Preview

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II face Marcelová on March 28, 2021 in this 3. liga - West fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II host Marcelová at Futbalový štadión na Levickej ulici.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.