Marcelová vs Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II — 3. liga - West 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 25+ matches
Marcelová65%
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II14%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Marcelová creates 157% more chances
Season form · 25 home / 25 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under51
- Over49
Close call
Both teams score
- No56
- Yes44
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Marcelová ↓
Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Marcelová at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.76 · 25 matches
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II away — creates 0.72, concedes 2.56 · 25 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Marcelová attack 1.24 + Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 1.90
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II attack 0.72 + Marcelová defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.74
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 65%?"
Marcelová at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 65% does not mean "Marcelová will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Spartak Myjava
Beluša
MalženiceZl. Moravce-Vrablé II
Považská Bystrica
Slovan Duslo ŠaľaMarcelová
Častkovce
Nové Mesto nad Váhom
Kalná nad Hronom
Imeľ
Lednické Rovne
Nitra II
Nové Zámky
Veľké Ludince
GalantaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Marcelová host Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II on Sunday, 3 April 2022 at 13:30. The match is part of the 3. liga - West 2020/2021 season.
Match Recap: Marcelová vs Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II
Marcelová beat Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II 3-0 in 3. liga - West on April 3, 2022.
The match was played at Štadion FK Marcelová in Marcelová.