Žitorađa 2–5 Vlasina: Result & Stats

Žitorađa

FT

2 – 5

Vlasina

4/21/2024

Srpska Liga - East · East - 23Stadion Žitorađa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Žitorađa25%

×Draw22%

Vlasina54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ŽitorađaExpected goals in this matchVlasina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

2.00

Žitorađa

1.29

Vlasina

2.00

Vlasina creates 55% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 101 away

0.87

creates per match

1.40

2.60

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Žitorađa

0.87

Vlasina

1.40

allows per match

Žitorađa

2.60

Vlasina

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Žitorađa+0.00on par

Vlasina+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Žitorađa ↓

Vlasina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Žitorađa or draw

46%

Žitorađa or Vlasina

78%

Draw or Vlasina

75%

Winning margin

Žitorađa wins by 2+

10%

Vlasina wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Žitorađa 1+ goals

72%

Žitorađa 2+ goals

37%

Žitorađa 3+ goals

14%

Vlasina 1+ goals

86%

Vlasina 2+ goals

59%

Vlasina 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Žitorađa (draw refunded)

31%

Vlasina (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Žitorađa at home — creates 0.87, concedes 2.60 · 15 matches

Vlasina away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.72 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Žitorađa attack 0.87 + Vlasina defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.29

Vlasina attack 1.40 + Žitorađa defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Žitorađa scores more

25%

level

22%

Vlasina scores more

54%

Vlasina at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Vlasina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff