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Vlasina vs Žitorađa — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Vlasina
Vlasina
FT
4 – 1
Žitorađa
Žitorađa
10/1/2023Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 8Stadion Rosulja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Vlasina81%
×Draw12%
Žitorađa7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vlasina
2.94
Žitorađa
0.73

Vlasina creates 303% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 15 away

creates per match

Vlasina
1.81
Žitorađa
0.53

allows per match

Vlasina
0.94
Žitorađa
4.07

finishing

Vlasina+0.00on par
Žitorađa+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vlasina ↓

Žitorađa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Vlasina or draw
93%
Vlasina or Žitorađa
88%
Draw or Žitorađa
19%

Winning margin

Vlasina wins by 2+
62%
Žitorađa wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Vlasina 1+ goals
95%
Vlasina 2+ goals
79%
Vlasina 3+ goals
55%
Žitorađa 1+ goals
52%
Žitorađa 2+ goals
17%
Žitorađa 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Vlasina (draw refunded)
93%
Žitorađa (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vlasina at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.94 · 102 matches

Žitorađa away — creates 0.53, concedes 4.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vlasina attack 1.81 + Žitorađa defence 4.07 → ÷2 → 2.94

Žitorađa attack 0.53 + Vlasina defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Vlasina scores more
81%
level
12%
Žitorađa scores more
7%

Vlasina at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Vlasina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Vlasina 4–1 Žitorađa

Vlasina beat Žitorađa 4-1 in Srpska Liga - East on October 1, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Rosulja in Vlasotince.