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Žitorađa vs Sinđelić — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Žitorađa
Žitorađa
FT
0 – 2
Sinđelić
Sinđelić
8/13/2023Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 1Stadion Žitorađa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Žitorađa24%
×Draw22%
Sinđelić54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Žitorađa
1.23
Sinđelić
1.96

Sinđelić creates 59% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 72 away

creates per match

Žitorađa
0.87
Sinđelić
1.32

allows per match

Žitorađa
2.60
Sinđelić
1.58

finishing

Žitorađa+0.00on par
Sinđelić+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Žitorađa ↓

Sinđelić →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Žitorađa or draw
46%
Žitorađa or Sinđelić
78%
Draw or Sinđelić
76%

Winning margin

Žitorađa wins by 2+
10%
Sinđelić wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Žitorađa 1+ goals
71%
Žitorađa 2+ goals
35%
Žitorađa 3+ goals
13%
Sinđelić 1+ goals
86%
Sinđelić 2+ goals
58%
Sinđelić 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Žitorađa (draw refunded)
31%
Sinđelić (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Žitorađa at home — creates 0.87, concedes 2.60 · 15 matches

Sinđelić away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.58 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Žitorađa attack 0.87 + Sinđelić defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.23

Sinđelić attack 1.32 + Žitorađa defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Žitorađa scores more
24%
level
22%
Sinđelić scores more
54%

Sinđelić at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sinđelić will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Žitorađa 0–2 Sinđelić

Sinđelić beat Žitorađa 2-0 in Srpska Liga - East on August 13, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Žitorađa in Žitorađa.