Sinđelić 2–1 Žitorađa: Result & Stats

Sinđelić

FT

2 – 1

Žitorađa

3/2/2024

Srpska Liga - East · East - 16Stadion Mašinac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sinđelić83%

×Draw11%

Žitorađa6%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SinđelićExpected goals in this matchŽitorađa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.00

0.68

Sinđelić

3.00

Žitorađa

0.68

Sinđelić creates 341% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 15 away

1.92

creates per match

0.53

0.82

allows per match

4.07

creates per match

Sinđelić

1.92

Žitorađa

0.53

allows per match

Sinđelić

0.82

Žitorađa

4.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sinđelić+0.00on par

Žitorađa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sinđelić ↓

Žitorađa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–15%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–012%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–09%

4–16%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Sinđelić or draw

94%

Sinđelić or Žitorađa

89%

Draw or Žitorađa

17%

Winning margin

Sinđelić wins by 2+

64%

Žitorađa wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Sinđelić 1+ goals

95%

Sinđelić 2+ goals

79%

Sinđelić 3+ goals

56%

Žitorađa 1+ goals

49%

Žitorađa 2+ goals

15%

Žitorađa 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Sinđelić (draw refunded)

94%

Žitorađa (draw refunded)

6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sinđelić at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.82 · 71 matches

Žitorađa away — creates 0.53, concedes 4.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sinđelić attack 1.92 + Žitorađa defence 4.07 → ÷2 → 3.00

Žitorađa attack 0.53 + Sinđelić defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Sinđelić scores more

83%

level

11%

Žitorađa scores more

6%

Sinđelić at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Sinđelić will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff