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Žitorađa vs SFS Borac — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Žitorađa
Žitorađa
FT
0 – 4
SFS Borac
SFS Borac
3/10/2024Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 17Stadion Žitorađa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Žitorađa25%
×Draw23%
SFS Borac52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Žitorađa
1.23
SFS Borac
1.85

SFS Borac creates 50% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 72 away

creates per match

Žitorađa
0.87
SFS Borac
1.10

allows per match

Žitorađa
2.60
SFS Borac
1.58

finishing

Žitorađa+0.00on par
SFS Borac+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Žitorađa ↓

SFS Borac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Žitorađa or draw
48%
Žitorađa or SFS Borac
77%
Draw or SFS Borac
75%

Winning margin

Žitorađa wins by 2+
10%
SFS Borac wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Žitorađa 1+ goals
71%
Žitorađa 2+ goals
35%
Žitorađa 3+ goals
13%
SFS Borac 1+ goals
84%
SFS Borac 2+ goals
55%
SFS Borac 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Žitorađa (draw refunded)
33%
SFS Borac (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Žitorađa at home — creates 0.87, concedes 2.60 · 15 matches

SFS Borac away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.58 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Žitorađa attack 0.87 + SFS Borac defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.23

SFS Borac attack 1.10 + Žitorađa defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Žitorađa scores more
25%
level
23%
SFS Borac scores more
52%

SFS Borac at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "SFS Borac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Žitorađa 0–4 SFS Borac

SFS Borac beat Žitorađa 4-0 in Srpska Liga - East on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Žitorađa in Žitorađa.