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SFS Borac vs Žitorađa — Srpska Liga - East 2019

SFS Borac
SFS Borac
FT
2 – 1
Žitorađa
Žitorađa
8/20/2023Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 2Stadion FK SFS Borac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

SFS Borac80%
×Draw12%
Žitorađa8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SFS Borac
3.06
Žitorađa
0.89

SFS Borac creates 244% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 15 away

creates per match

SFS Borac
2.05
Žitorađa
0.53

allows per match

SFS Borac
1.25
Žitorađa
4.07

finishing

SFS Borac+0.00on par
Žitorađa+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SFS Borac ↓

Žitorađa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–15%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

SFS Borac or draw
92%
SFS Borac or Žitorađa
88%
Draw or Žitorađa
20%

Winning margin

SFS Borac wins by 2+
60%
Žitorađa wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

SFS Borac 1+ goals
95%
SFS Borac 2+ goals
80%
SFS Borac 3+ goals
57%
Žitorađa 1+ goals
59%
Žitorađa 2+ goals
22%
Žitorađa 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

SFS Borac (draw refunded)
91%
Žitorađa (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SFS Borac at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.25 · 73 matches

Žitorađa away — creates 0.53, concedes 4.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SFS Borac attack 2.05 + Žitorađa defence 4.07 → ÷2 → 3.06

Žitorađa attack 0.53 + SFS Borac defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

SFS Borac scores more
80%
level
12%
Žitorađa scores more
8%

SFS Borac at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "SFS Borac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: SFS Borac 2–1 Žitorađa

SFS Borac beat Žitorađa 2-1 in Srpska Liga - East on August 20, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FK SFS Borac in Paraćin.