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Žitorađa vs Radnicki Pirot — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Žitorađa
Žitorađa
FT
2 – 4
Radnicki Pirot
Radnicki Pirot
10/22/2023Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 11Stadion Žitorađa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Žitorađa20%
×Draw20%
Radnicki Pirot60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Žitorađa
1.15
Radnicki Pirot
2.14

Radnicki Pirot creates 86% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 74 away

creates per match

Žitorađa
0.87
Radnicki Pirot
1.68

allows per match

Žitorađa
2.60
Radnicki Pirot
1.43

finishing

Žitorađa+0.00on par
Radnicki Pirot+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Žitorađa ↓

Radnicki Pirot →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Žitorađa or draw
40%
Žitorađa or Radnicki Pirot
80%
Draw or Radnicki Pirot
80%

Winning margin

Žitorađa wins by 2+
7%
Radnicki Pirot wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Žitorađa 1+ goals
68%
Žitorađa 2+ goals
32%
Žitorađa 3+ goals
11%
Radnicki Pirot 1+ goals
88%
Radnicki Pirot 2+ goals
63%
Radnicki Pirot 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Žitorađa (draw refunded)
25%
Radnicki Pirot (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Žitorađa at home — creates 0.87, concedes 2.60 · 15 matches

Radnicki Pirot away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.43 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Žitorađa attack 0.87 + Radnicki Pirot defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.15

Radnicki Pirot attack 1.68 + Žitorađa defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Žitorađa scores more
20%
level
20%
Radnicki Pirot scores more
60%

Radnicki Pirot at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Radnicki Pirot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Žitorađa 2–4 Radnicki Pirot

Radnicki Pirot beat Žitorađa 4-2 in Srpska Liga - East on October 22, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Žitorađa in Žitorađa.