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Radnicki Pirot vs Žitorađa — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Radnicki Pirot
Radnicki Pirot
FT
6 – 1
Žitorađa
Žitorađa
5/4/2024Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 26Stadion Dragan Nikolić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Radnicki Pirot84%
×Draw10%
Žitorađa6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnicki Pirot
3.25
Žitorađa
0.75

Radnicki Pirot creates 333% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 15 away

creates per match

Radnicki Pirot
2.44
Žitorađa
0.53

allows per match

Radnicki Pirot
0.97
Žitorađa
4.07

finishing

Radnicki Pirot+0.00on par
Žitorađa+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnicki Pirot ↓

Žitorađa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–15%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (11%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Radnicki Pirot or draw
94%
Radnicki Pirot or Žitorađa
90%
Draw or Žitorađa
16%

Winning margin

Radnicki Pirot wins by 2+
66%
Žitorađa wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Radnicki Pirot 1+ goals
96%
Radnicki Pirot 2+ goals
83%
Radnicki Pirot 3+ goals
61%
Žitorađa 1+ goals
53%
Žitorađa 2+ goals
17%
Žitorađa 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Radnicki Pirot (draw refunded)
94%
Žitorađa (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnicki Pirot at home — creates 2.44, concedes 0.97 · 75 matches

Žitorađa away — creates 0.53, concedes 4.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnicki Pirot attack 2.44 + Žitorađa defence 4.07 → ÷2 → 3.25

Žitorađa attack 0.53 + Radnicki Pirot defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Radnicki Pirot scores more
84%
level
10%
Žitorađa scores more
6%

Radnicki Pirot at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Radnicki Pirot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Radnicki Pirot 6–1 Žitorađa

Radnicki Pirot beat Žitorađa 6-1 in Srpska Liga - East on May 4, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Dragan Nikolić in Pirot.