Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Žitorađa vs Jedinstvo Kruševac — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Žitorađa
Žitorađa
FT
1 – 1
Jedinstvo Kruševac
Jedinstvo Kruševac
9/10/2023Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 5Stadion Žitorađa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Žitorađa22%
×Draw23%
Jedinstvo Kruševac55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Žitorađa
1.03
Jedinstvo Kruševac
1.78

Jedinstvo Kruševac creates 73% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

Žitorađa
0.87
Jedinstvo Kruševac
0.96

allows per match

Žitorađa
2.60
Jedinstvo Kruševac
1.20

finishing

Žitorađa+0.00on par
Jedinstvo Kruševac+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Žitorađa ↓

Jedinstvo Kruševac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Žitorađa or draw
45%
Žitorađa or Jedinstvo Kruševac
77%
Draw or Jedinstvo Kruševac
78%

Winning margin

Žitorađa wins by 2+
8%
Jedinstvo Kruševac wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Žitorađa 1+ goals
64%
Žitorađa 2+ goals
28%
Žitorađa 3+ goals
9%
Jedinstvo Kruševac 1+ goals
83%
Jedinstvo Kruševac 2+ goals
53%
Jedinstvo Kruševac 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Žitorađa (draw refunded)
28%
Jedinstvo Kruševac (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Žitorađa at home — creates 0.87, concedes 2.60 · 15 matches

Jedinstvo Kruševac away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.20 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Žitorađa attack 0.87 + Jedinstvo Kruševac defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.03

Jedinstvo Kruševac attack 0.96 + Žitorađa defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Žitorađa scores more
22%
level
23%
Jedinstvo Kruševac scores more
55%

Jedinstvo Kruševac at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Jedinstvo Kruševac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Žitorađa 1–1 Jedinstvo Kruševac

Žitorađa and Jedinstvo Kruševac drew 1-1 in Srpska Liga - East on September 10, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Žitorađa in Žitorađa.