Jedinstvo Kruševac 3–0 Žitorađa: Result & Stats

Jedinstvo Kruševac

FT

3 – 0

Žitorađa

3/30/2024

Srpska Liga - East · East - 20Sportski centar Jedinstvo 1936

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Jedinstvo Kruševac80%

×Draw12%

Žitorađa8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jedinstvo KruševacExpected goals in this matchŽitorađa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.06

0.88

Jedinstvo Kruševac

3.06

Žitorađa

0.88

Jedinstvo Kruševac creates 248% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 15 away

2.05

creates per match

0.53

1.23

allows per match

4.07

creates per match

Jedinstvo Kruševac

2.05

Žitorađa

0.53

allows per match

Jedinstvo Kruševac

1.23

Žitorađa

4.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jedinstvo Kruševac+0.00on par

Žitorađa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo Kruševac ↓

Žitorađa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–15%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Jedinstvo Kruševac or draw

92%

Jedinstvo Kruševac or Žitorađa

88%

Draw or Žitorađa

20%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo Kruševac wins by 2+

61%

Žitorađa wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Jedinstvo Kruševac 1+ goals

95%

Jedinstvo Kruševac 2+ goals

80%

Jedinstvo Kruševac 3+ goals

57%

Žitorađa 1+ goals

59%

Žitorađa 2+ goals

22%

Žitorađa 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo Kruševac (draw refunded)

91%

Žitorađa (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo Kruševac at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.23 · 44 matches

Žitorađa away — creates 0.53, concedes 4.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo Kruševac attack 2.05 + Žitorađa defence 4.07 → ÷2 → 3.06

Žitorađa attack 0.53 + Jedinstvo Kruševac defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Jedinstvo Kruševac scores more

80%

level

12%

Žitorađa scores more

8%

Jedinstvo Kruševac at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Jedinstvo Kruševac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff