Žitorađa 1–7 Dunav Prahovo: Result & Stats

Žitorađa

FT

1 – 7

Dunav Prahovo

6/1/2024

Srpska Liga - East · East - 30Stadion Žitorađa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Žitorađa29%

×Draw23%

Dunav Prahovo48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ŽitorađaExpected goals in this matchDunav Prahovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.83

Žitorađa

1.39

Dunav Prahovo

1.83

Dunav Prahovo creates 32% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 79 away

0.87

creates per match

1.05

2.60

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Žitorađa

0.87

Dunav Prahovo

1.05

allows per match

Žitorađa

2.60

Dunav Prahovo

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Žitorađa+0.00on par

Dunav Prahovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Žitorađa ↓

Dunav Prahovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Žitorađa or draw

52%

Žitorađa or Dunav Prahovo

77%

Draw or Dunav Prahovo

71%

Winning margin

Žitorađa wins by 2+

13%

Dunav Prahovo wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Žitorađa 1+ goals

75%

Žitorađa 2+ goals

40%

Žitorađa 3+ goals

16%

Dunav Prahovo 1+ goals

84%

Dunav Prahovo 2+ goals

54%

Dunav Prahovo 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Žitorađa (draw refunded)

38%

Dunav Prahovo (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Žitorađa at home — creates 0.87, concedes 2.60 · 15 matches

Dunav Prahovo away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.90 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Žitorađa attack 0.87 + Dunav Prahovo defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.39

Dunav Prahovo attack 1.05 + Žitorađa defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Žitorađa scores more

29%

level

23%

Dunav Prahovo scores more

48%

Dunav Prahovo at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Dunav Prahovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff