Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dunav Prahovo vs Žitorađa — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Dunav Prahovo
Dunav Prahovo
FT
5 – 0
Žitorađa
Žitorađa
11/18/2023Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 15Stadion FK Dunav

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dunav Prahovo79%
×Draw13%
Žitorađa8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunav Prahovo
2.88
Žitorađa
0.81

Dunav Prahovo creates 256% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 15 away

creates per match

Dunav Prahovo
1.69
Žitorađa
0.53

allows per match

Dunav Prahovo
1.09
Žitorađa
4.07

finishing

Dunav Prahovo+0.00on par
Žitorađa+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunav Prahovo ↓

Žitorađa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Dunav Prahovo or draw
92%
Dunav Prahovo or Žitorađa
87%
Draw or Žitorađa
21%

Winning margin

Dunav Prahovo wins by 2+
59%
Žitorađa wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Dunav Prahovo 1+ goals
94%
Dunav Prahovo 2+ goals
78%
Dunav Prahovo 3+ goals
54%
Žitorađa 1+ goals
56%
Žitorađa 2+ goals
19%
Žitorađa 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Dunav Prahovo (draw refunded)
91%
Žitorađa (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunav Prahovo at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.09 · 80 matches

Žitorađa away — creates 0.53, concedes 4.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunav Prahovo attack 1.69 + Žitorađa defence 4.07 → ÷2 → 2.88

Žitorađa attack 0.53 + Dunav Prahovo defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Dunav Prahovo scores more
79%
level
13%
Žitorađa scores more
8%

Dunav Prahovo at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Dunav Prahovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Dunav Prahovo 5–0 Žitorađa

Dunav Prahovo beat Žitorađa 5-0 in Srpska Liga - East on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FK Dunav in Prahovo.