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Zirl vs Natters — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

Zirl
Zirl
FT
2 – 1
Natters
Natters
10/13/2020Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 10Sportplatz Zirl

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Zirl28%
×Draw21%
Natters50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zirl
1.50
Natters
2.05

Natters creates 37% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 44 away

creates per match

Zirl
0.82
Natters
1.55

allows per match

Zirl
2.55
Natters
2.18

finishing

Zirl+0.00on par
Natters+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zirl ↓

Natters →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Zirl or draw
50%
Zirl or Natters
79%
Draw or Natters
72%

Winning margin

Zirl wins by 2+
13%
Natters wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Zirl 1+ goals
78%
Zirl 2+ goals
44%
Zirl 3+ goals
19%
Natters 1+ goals
87%
Natters 2+ goals
61%
Natters 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Zirl (draw refunded)
36%
Natters (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zirl at home — creates 0.82, concedes 2.55 · 22 matches

Natters away — creates 1.55, concedes 2.18 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zirl attack 0.82 + Natters defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.50

Natters attack 1.55 + Zirl defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Zirl scores more
28%
level
21%
Natters scores more
50%

Natters at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Natters will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Tirol: Zirl 2–1 Natters

Zirl beat Natters 2-1 in Landesliga - Tirol on October 13, 2020.

The match was played at Sportplatz Zirl in Zirl.