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Natters vs Zirl — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

Natters
Natters
FT
1 – 0
Zirl
Zirl
5/13/2022Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 24Chairman-Arena Natters

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Natters64%
×Draw18%
Zirl18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Natters
2.54
Zirl
1.27

Natters creates 100% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 20 away

creates per match

Natters
1.93
Zirl
0.70

allows per match

Natters
1.84
Zirl
3.15

finishing

Natters+0.00on par
Zirl+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Natters ↓

Zirl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Natters or draw
82%
Natters or Zirl
82%
Draw or Zirl
36%

Winning margin

Natters wins by 2+
43%
Zirl wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Natters 1+ goals
92%
Natters 2+ goals
72%
Natters 3+ goals
46%
Zirl 1+ goals
72%
Zirl 2+ goals
36%
Zirl 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Natters (draw refunded)
78%
Zirl (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Natters at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.84 · 44 matches

Zirl away — creates 0.70, concedes 3.15 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Natters attack 1.93 + Zirl defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.54

Zirl attack 0.70 + Natters defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Natters scores more
64%
level
18%
Zirl scores more
18%

Natters at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Natters will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Tirol: Natters 1–0 Zirl

Natters beat Zirl 1-0 in Landesliga - Tirol on May 13, 2022.

The match was played at Chairman-Arena Natters in Natters.