Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Žiri vs Zagorje — 3. SNL - West 2020

Žiri
Žiri
CANC
14:00
Zagorje
Zagorje
5/30/20213. SNL - West3. SNL - West · West - 26

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Žiri65%
×Draw17%
Zagorje18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Žiri
2.70
Zagorje
1.37

Žiri creates 97% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 10 away

creates per match

Žiri
1.30
Zagorje
0.70

allows per match

Žiri
2.04
Zagorje
4.10

finishing

Žiri+0.00on par
Zagorje+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Žiri ↓

Zagorje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Žiri or draw
82%
Žiri or Zagorje
83%
Draw or Zagorje
35%

Winning margin

Žiri wins by 2+
44%
Zagorje wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Žiri 1+ goals
93%
Žiri 2+ goals
75%
Žiri 3+ goals
50%
Zagorje 1+ goals
75%
Zagorje 2+ goals
40%
Zagorje 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Žiri (draw refunded)
78%
Zagorje (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Žiri at home — creates 1.30, concedes 2.04 · 23 matches

Zagorje away — creates 0.70, concedes 4.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Žiri attack 1.30 + Zagorje defence 4.10 → ÷2 → 2.70

Zagorje attack 0.70 + Žiri defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Žiri scores more
65%
level
17%
Zagorje scores more
18%

Žiri at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Žiri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Žiri vs Zagorje — Match Preview

Žiri face Zagorje on May 30, 2021 in this 3. SNL - West fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.