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Zagorje vs Žiri — 3. SNL - West 2020

Zagorje
Zagorje
FT
0 – 3
Žiri
Žiri
5/8/20213. SNL - West3. SNL - West · West - 13Mestni stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Zagorje17%
×Draw18%
Žiri65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zagorje
1.15
Žiri
2.40

Žiri creates 109% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 22 away

creates per match

Zagorje
0.44
Žiri
1.36

allows per match

Zagorje
3.44
Žiri
1.86

finishing

Zagorje+0.00on par
Žiri+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zagorje ↓

Žiri →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Zagorje or draw
35%
Zagorje or Žiri
82%
Draw or Žiri
83%

Winning margin

Zagorje wins by 2+
6%
Žiri wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Zagorje 1+ goals
68%
Zagorje 2+ goals
32%
Zagorje 3+ goals
11%
Žiri 1+ goals
91%
Žiri 2+ goals
69%
Žiri 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Zagorje (draw refunded)
21%
Žiri (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zagorje at home — creates 0.44, concedes 3.44 · 9 matches

Žiri away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zagorje attack 0.44 + Žiri defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.15

Žiri attack 1.36 + Zagorje defence 3.44 → ÷2 → 2.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Zagorje scores more
17%
level
18%
Žiri scores more
65%

Žiri at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Žiri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. SNL - West: Zagorje 0–3 Žiri

Žiri beat Zagorje 3-0 in 3. SNL - West on May 8, 2021.

The match was played at Mestni stadion in Zagorje ob Savi.