Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Zimbru II vs Iskra — League #395 2026

Zimbru II
Zimbru II
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Iskra
Iskra
11/21/2025League #395League #395 · Round 15Baza Zimbru 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Zimbru II57%
×Draw18%
Iskra26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zimbru II
2.96
Iskra
2.00

Zimbru II creates 48% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Zimbru II
2.75
Iskra
2.50

allows per match

Zimbru II
1.50
Iskra
3.17

finishing

Zimbru II+0.00on par
Iskra+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zimbru II ↓

Iskra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–24%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–15%
4–25%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–1 (6%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
54%46%

Double chance

Zimbru II or draw
74%
Zimbru II or Iskra
82%
Draw or Iskra
43%

Winning margin

Zimbru II wins by 2+
38%
Iskra wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Zimbru II 1+ goals
95%
Zimbru II 2+ goals
79%
Zimbru II 3+ goals
55%
Iskra 1+ goals
86%
Iskra 2+ goals
59%
Iskra 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Zimbru II (draw refunded)
69%
Iskra (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zimbru II at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Iskra away — creates 2.50, concedes 3.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zimbru II attack 2.75 + Iskra defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 2.96

Iskra attack 2.50 + Zimbru II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Zimbru II scores more
57%
level
18%
Iskra scores more
26%

Zimbru II at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Zimbru II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zimbru II vs Iskra

Zimbru II beat Iskra 5-1 in League #395 on November 21, 2025.

The match was played at Baza Zimbru 2 in Chişinău.