Iskra 2–3 Zimbru II: Result & Stats | League #395

Iskra

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Zimbru II

10/3/2025

League #395 · Round 10Stadionul Orăşenesc Rîbnița

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Iskra26%

×Draw22%

Zimbru II52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IskraExpected goals in this matchZimbru II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

2.02

Iskra

1.38

Zimbru II

2.02

Zimbru II creates 46% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

1.43

creates per match

2.33

1.71

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Iskra

1.43

Zimbru II

2.33

allows per match

Iskra

1.71

Zimbru II

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Iskra+0.00on par

Zimbru II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iskra ↓

Zimbru II →

0–03%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Iskra or draw

48%

Iskra or Zimbru II

78%

Draw or Zimbru II

74%

Winning margin

Iskra wins by 2+

11%

Zimbru II wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Iskra 1+ goals

75%

Iskra 2+ goals

40%

Iskra 3+ goals

16%

Zimbru II 1+ goals

87%

Zimbru II 2+ goals

60%

Zimbru II 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Iskra (draw refunded)

33%

Zimbru II (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Iskra at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Zimbru II away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Iskra attack 1.43 + Zimbru II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.38

Zimbru II attack 2.33 + Iskra defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Iskra scores more

26%

level

22%

Zimbru II scores more

52%

Zimbru II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Zimbru II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff