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Zimbabwe vs South Africa — Africa Cup of Nations 2019

Zimbabwe
Zimbabwe
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
South Africa
South Africa
A. Modiba 73' (OG)
T. Maswanhise 19'
O. Appollis 82' (pen)
L. Foster 50'
T. Moremi 7'
12/29/2025Africa Cup of NationsAfrica Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 3Grand Stade de Marrakech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Zimbabwe36%
×Draw27%
South Africa37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zimbabwe
1.28
South Africa
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

creates per match

Zimbabwe
1.67
South Africa
1.10

allows per match

Zimbabwe
1.50
South Africa
0.90

finishing

Zimbabwe+0.00on par
South Africa+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zimbabwe ↓

South Africa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Zimbabwe or draw
63%
Zimbabwe or South Africa
73%
Draw or South Africa
64%

Winning margin

Zimbabwe wins by 2+
16%
South Africa wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Zimbabwe 1+ goals
72%
Zimbabwe 2+ goals
37%
Zimbabwe 3+ goals
14%
South Africa 1+ goals
73%
South Africa 2+ goals
37%
South Africa 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Zimbabwe (draw refunded)
49%
South Africa (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zimbabwe at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

South Africa away — creates 1.10, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zimbabwe attack 1.67 + South Africa defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.28

South Africa attack 1.10 + Zimbabwe defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Zimbabwe scores more
36%
level
27%
South Africa scores more
37%

South Africa at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "South Africa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
L. FosterSouth AfricaSouth Africa · F
8.2

Match Events

7'
T. Moremi↳ L. Foster
19'
T. Maswanhise↳ J. Fabisch
34'
Sipho Mbule
46'
B. J. Aubaas← S. Sithole
50'
L. Foster
59'
J. Zindoga← B. Antonio
59'
T. Chirewa← D. Msendami
60'
M. Bonne← P. Dube
73'
E. Makgopa← L. Foster
73'
A. ModibaOwn goal
75'
E. Jalai← M. Garananga
76'
M. Nkota← T. Moremi
80'
Mohau NkotaPenalty confirmed
81'
Marvelous Nakamba
82'
O. AppollisPenalty
86'
T. Mbatha← S. Mbule
88'
T. Chakuchichi← J. Fabisch

Possession

34%Zimbabwe

Shots

10Zimbabwe

Pass accuracy

45%Zimbabwe

Statistics

ZimbabweSouth
Overview
34%Possession66%
10Total Shots16
3Corners3
14Fouls11
Shots
10Total Shots16
3On Target9
5Off Target5
2Blocked2
7Inside Box10
3Outside Box6
Passing
34%Possession66%
242Total Passes487
165Accurate Passes404
68%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
6Saves2
Discipline
14Fouls11
1Yellow Cards1
5Offsides1

Africa Cup of Nations: Zimbabwe 2–3 South Africa

South Africa beat Zimbabwe 3-2 in Africa Cup of Nations on December 29, 2025.

Goals: T. Moremi (7'), T. Maswanhise (19'), L. Foster (50'), A. Modiba (73' o.g.), O. Appollis (82' pen).

South Africa controlled possession (66%) and registered 16 shots to 10.

The match was played at Grand Stade de Marrakech in Marrakech.