South Africa 3–1 Zimbabwe: Result & Stats

South Africa

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Zimbabwe

T. Morena 76', 55'

I. Rayners 1'

T. Chirewa 2'

6/11/2024

League #29 · Group Stage - 4Toyota Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

South Africa73%

×Draw19%

Zimbabwe8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

South AfricaExpected goals in this matchZimbabwe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

0.50

South Africa

2.00

Zimbabwe

0.50

South Africa creates 300% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

2.33

creates per match

0.67

0.33

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

South Africa

2.33

Zimbabwe

0.67

allows per match

South Africa

0.33

Zimbabwe

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

South Africa+0.00on par

Zimbabwe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Africa ↓

Zimbabwe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–18%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

South Africa or draw

92%

South Africa or Zimbabwe

81%

Draw or Zimbabwe

27%

Winning margin

South Africa wins by 2+

47%

Zimbabwe wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

South Africa 1+ goals

86%

South Africa 2+ goals

59%

South Africa 3+ goals

32%

Zimbabwe 1+ goals

39%

Zimbabwe 2+ goals

9%

Zimbabwe 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

South Africa (draw refunded)

90%

Zimbabwe (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

South Africa at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Zimbabwe away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

South Africa attack 2.33 + Zimbabwe defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.00

Zimbabwe attack 0.67 + South Africa defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

South Africa scores more

73%

level

19%

Zimbabwe scores more

8%

South Africa at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "South Africa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

O. Appollis

South Africa · M

8.9

Match Events

1'

I. Rayners

2'

T. Chirewa↳ M. Munetsi

46'

T. Morena← E. Mokwana

46'

D. Msendami← D. Mapfumo

52'

Teboho Mokoena

55'

T. Morena

76'

T. Morena↳ O. Appollis

90+3'

R. Mofokeng← O. Appollis

90+1'

J. Zemura← A. Rinomhota

90+2'

T. Maswanhise← T. Chirewa

90+1'

T. Machope← W. Musona

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SouthZimbabwe

Overview

68%Possession32%

26Total Shots6

12Corners2

10Fouls10

Shots

26Total Shots6

8On Target3

5Off Target2

13Blocked1

14Inside Box4

12Outside Box2

Passing

68%Possession32%

620Total Passes306

574Accurate Passes241

93%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls10

1Yellow Cards0

3Offsides1