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Zimbabwe vs Liberia — Africa Cup of Nations 2019

Zimbabwe
Zimbabwe
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Liberia
Liberia
6/11/2017Africa Cup of NationsAfrica Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 2National Sports Stadium (Harare)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Zimbabwe62%
×Draw21%
Liberia17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zimbabwe
2.00
Liberia
0.92

Zimbabwe creates 117% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Zimbabwe
1.67
Liberia
0.33

allows per match

Zimbabwe
1.50
Liberia
2.33

finishing

Zimbabwe+0.00on par
Liberia+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zimbabwe ↓

Liberia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Zimbabwe or draw
83%
Zimbabwe or Liberia
79%
Draw or Liberia
38%

Winning margin

Zimbabwe wins by 2+
38%
Liberia wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Zimbabwe 1+ goals
86%
Zimbabwe 2+ goals
59%
Zimbabwe 3+ goals
32%
Liberia 1+ goals
60%
Liberia 2+ goals
23%
Liberia 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Zimbabwe (draw refunded)
79%
Liberia (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zimbabwe at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Liberia away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zimbabwe attack 1.67 + Liberia defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.00

Liberia attack 0.33 + Zimbabwe defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Zimbabwe scores more
62%
level
21%
Liberia scores more
17%

Zimbabwe at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Zimbabwe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Africa Cup of Nations: Zimbabwe 3–0 Liberia

Zimbabwe beat Liberia 3-0 in Africa Cup of Nations on June 11, 2017.

The match was played at National Sports Stadium (Harare).