Liberia 1–0 Zimbabwe: Result & Stats

Liberia

FT

1 – 0

Zimbabwe

11/18/2018

Africa Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 6Samuel Kanyon Doe Sports Complex (Monrovia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Liberia49%

×Draw29%

Zimbabwe23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LiberiaExpected goals in this matchZimbabwe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.79

Liberia

1.31

Zimbabwe

0.79

Liberia creates 66% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 10 away

1.33

creates per match

0.90

0.67

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Liberia

1.33

Zimbabwe

0.90

allows per match

Liberia

0.67

Zimbabwe

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Liberia+0.00on par

Zimbabwe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liberia ↓

Zimbabwe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Liberia or draw

77%

Liberia or Zimbabwe

71%

Draw or Zimbabwe

51%

Winning margin

Liberia wins by 2+

23%

Zimbabwe wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Liberia 1+ goals

73%

Liberia 2+ goals

38%

Liberia 3+ goals

14%

Zimbabwe 1+ goals

55%

Zimbabwe 2+ goals

19%

Zimbabwe 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Liberia (draw refunded)

68%

Zimbabwe (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liberia at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Zimbabwe away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liberia attack 1.33 + Zimbabwe defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.31

Zimbabwe attack 0.90 + Liberia defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Liberia scores more

49%

level

29%

Zimbabwe scores more

23%

Liberia at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Liberia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff