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Žilina W vs Trenčín W — I Liga - Women 2020

Žilina W
Žilina W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Trenčín W
Trenčín W
4/25/2026I Liga - WomenI Liga - Women · Group Stage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Žilina W49%
×Draw19%
Trenčín W32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Žilina W
2.67
Trenčín W
2.15

Žilina W creates 24% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 69 away

creates per match

Žilina W
1.79
Trenčín W
1.64

allows per match

Žilina W
2.65
Trenčín W
3.55

finishing

Žilina W+0.00on par
Trenčín W+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Žilina W ↓

Trenčín W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–25%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
70%30%4.5
51%49%

Double chance

Žilina W or draw
68%
Žilina W or Trenčín W
81%
Draw or Trenčín W
51%

Winning margin

Žilina W wins by 2+
31%
Trenčín W wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Žilina W 1+ goals
93%
Žilina W 2+ goals
74%
Žilina W 3+ goals
49%
Trenčín W 1+ goals
88%
Trenčín W 2+ goals
63%
Trenčín W 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Žilina W (draw refunded)
61%
Trenčín W (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Žilina W at home — creates 1.79, concedes 2.65 · 68 matches

Trenčín W away — creates 1.64, concedes 3.55 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Žilina W attack 1.79 + Trenčín W defence 3.55 → ÷2 → 2.67

Trenčín W attack 1.64 + Žilina W defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Žilina W scores more
49%
level
19%
Trenčín W scores more
32%

Žilina W at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Žilina W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Žilina W vs Trenčín W

Žilina W beat Trenčín W 1-0 in I Liga - Women on April 25, 2026.