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Trenčín W vs Žilina W — I Liga - Women 2020

Trenčín W
Trenčín W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Žilina W
Žilina W
5/30/2026I Liga - WomenI Liga - Women · Group Stage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Trenčín W57%
×Draw18%
Žilina W25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trenčín W
2.72
Žilina W
1.78

Trenčín W creates 53% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 68 away

creates per match

Trenčín W
1.93
Žilina W
1.19

allows per match

Trenčín W
2.37
Žilina W
3.51

finishing

Trenčín W+0.00on par
Žilina W+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trenčín W ↓

Žilina W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Trenčín W or draw
75%
Trenčín W or Žilina W
82%
Draw or Žilina W
43%

Winning margin

Trenčín W wins by 2+
37%
Žilina W wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Trenčín W 1+ goals
93%
Trenčín W 2+ goals
75%
Trenčín W 3+ goals
50%
Žilina W 1+ goals
83%
Žilina W 2+ goals
53%
Žilina W 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Trenčín W (draw refunded)
70%
Žilina W (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trenčín W at home — creates 1.93, concedes 2.37 · 67 matches

Žilina W away — creates 1.19, concedes 3.51 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trenčín W attack 1.93 + Žilina W defence 3.51 → ÷2 → 2.72

Žilina W attack 1.19 + Trenčín W defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Trenčín W scores more
57%
level
18%
Žilina W scores more
25%

Trenčín W at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Trenčín W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga - Women: Trenčín W 2–1 Žilina W

Trenčín W beat Žilina W 2-1 in I Liga - Women on May 30, 2026.