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Žilina W vs Spartak Myjava W — I Liga - Women 2020

Žilina W
Žilina W
FT
1 – 8
HT: 0 – 5
Spartak Myjava W
Spartak Myjava W
8/24/2024I Liga - WomenI Liga - Women · Round 3Futbalový štadión Strážov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Žilina W10%
×Draw13%
Spartak Myjava W77%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Žilina W
1.25
Spartak Myjava W
3.42

Spartak Myjava W creates 174% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 67 away

creates per match

Žilina W
1.79
Spartak Myjava W
4.19

allows per match

Žilina W
2.65
Spartak Myjava W
0.70

finishing

Žilina W+0.00on par
Spartak Myjava W+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Žilina W ↓

Spartak Myjava W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–26%
0–37%
0–46%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
67%33%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Žilina W or draw
23%
Žilina W or Spartak Myjava W
87%
Draw or Spartak Myjava W
90%

Winning margin

Žilina W wins by 2+
4%
Spartak Myjava W wins by 2+
59%

Team goals

Žilina W 1+ goals
71%
Žilina W 2+ goals
36%
Žilina W 3+ goals
13%
Spartak Myjava W 1+ goals
97%
Spartak Myjava W 2+ goals
85%
Spartak Myjava W 3+ goals
64%

Draw no bet

Žilina W (draw refunded)
12%
Spartak Myjava W (draw refunded)
88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Žilina W at home — creates 1.79, concedes 2.65 · 68 matches

Spartak Myjava W away — creates 4.19, concedes 0.70 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Žilina W attack 1.79 + Spartak Myjava W defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.25

Spartak Myjava W attack 4.19 + Žilina W defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 3.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Žilina W scores more
10%
level
13%
Spartak Myjava W scores more
77%

Spartak Myjava W at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Spartak Myjava W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Žilina W vs Spartak Myjava W

Spartak Myjava W beat Žilina W 8-1 in I Liga - Women on August 24, 2024.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión Strážov in Žilina.