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Žilina II vs Púchov — 2. liga 2019

Žilina II
Žilina II
FT
5 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Púchov
Púchov
8/17/20252. liga2. liga · Round 4Futbalový štadión Strážov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Žilina II50%
×Draw21%
Púchov28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Žilina II
2.07
Púchov
1.52

Žilina II creates 36% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 92 away

creates per match

Žilina II
2.26
Púchov
1.43

allows per match

Žilina II
1.61
Púchov
1.88

finishing

Žilina II+0.00on par
Púchov+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Žilina II ↓

Púchov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Žilina II or draw
72%
Žilina II or Púchov
79%
Draw or Púchov
50%

Winning margin

Žilina II wins by 2+
29%
Púchov wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Žilina II 1+ goals
87%
Žilina II 2+ goals
61%
Žilina II 3+ goals
34%
Púchov 1+ goals
78%
Púchov 2+ goals
45%
Púchov 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Žilina II (draw refunded)
64%
Púchov (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Žilina II at home — creates 2.26, concedes 1.61 · 98 matches

Púchov away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.88 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Žilina II attack 2.26 + Púchov defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.07

Púchov attack 1.43 + Žilina II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Žilina II scores more
50%
level
21%
Púchov scores more
28%

Žilina II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Žilina II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Žilina II vs Púchov

Žilina II beat Púchov 5-2 in 2. liga on August 17, 2025.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión Strážov in Žilina.