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Púchov vs Žilina II — 2. liga 2019

Púchov
Púchov
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Žilina II
Žilina II
5/3/20242. liga2. liga · Round 28Mestský štadión

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Púchov46%
×Draw24%
Žilina II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Púchov
1.65
Žilina II
1.29

Púchov creates 28% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 102 away

creates per match

Púchov
1.46
Žilina II
1.34

allows per match

Púchov
1.24
Žilina II
1.83

finishing

Púchov+0.00on par
Žilina II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Púchov ↓

Žilina II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Púchov or draw
70%
Púchov or Žilina II
76%
Draw or Žilina II
54%

Winning margin

Púchov wins by 2+
24%
Žilina II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Púchov 1+ goals
81%
Púchov 2+ goals
49%
Púchov 3+ goals
23%
Žilina II 1+ goals
72%
Žilina II 2+ goals
37%
Žilina II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Púchov (draw refunded)
60%
Žilina II (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Púchov at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.24 · 95 matches

Žilina II away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.83 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Púchov attack 1.46 + Žilina II defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.65

Žilina II attack 1.34 + Púchov defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Púchov scores more
46%
level
24%
Žilina II scores more
30%

Púchov at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Púchov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. liga: Púchov 2–2 Žilina II

Púchov and Žilina II drew 2-2 in 2. liga on May 3, 2024.

The match was played at Mestský štadión in Púchov.