Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Žilina II vs Dolný Kubín — 2. liga 2019

Žilina II
Žilina II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dolný Kubín
Dolný Kubín
5/7/20232. liga2. liga · Round 28Štadión Pod Dubňom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Žilina II65%
×Draw18%
Dolný Kubín17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Žilina II
2.40
Dolný Kubín
1.15

Žilina II creates 109% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 30 away

creates per match

Žilina II
2.23
Dolný Kubín
0.70

allows per match

Žilina II
1.60
Dolný Kubín
2.57

finishing

Žilina II+0.00on par
Dolný Kubín+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Žilina II ↓

Dolný Kubín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Žilina II or draw
83%
Žilina II or Dolný Kubín
82%
Draw or Dolný Kubín
35%

Winning margin

Žilina II wins by 2+
42%
Dolný Kubín wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Žilina II 1+ goals
91%
Žilina II 2+ goals
69%
Žilina II 3+ goals
42%
Dolný Kubín 1+ goals
68%
Dolný Kubín 2+ goals
32%
Dolný Kubín 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Žilina II (draw refunded)
79%
Dolný Kubín (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Žilina II at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.60 · 97 matches

Dolný Kubín away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.57 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Žilina II attack 2.23 + Dolný Kubín defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.40

Dolný Kubín attack 0.70 + Žilina II defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Žilina II scores more
65%
level
18%
Dolný Kubín scores more
17%

Žilina II at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Žilina II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Žilina II vs Dolný Kubín

Žilina II beat Dolný Kubín 1-0 in 2. liga on May 7, 2023.

The match was played at Štadión Pod Dubňom in Žilina.