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Dolný Kubín vs Žilina II — 2. liga 2019

Dolný Kubín
Dolný Kubín
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Žilina II
Žilina II
7/29/20232. liga2. liga · Round 1Futbalový štadión MUDr. Ivana Chodáka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Dolný Kubín41%
×Draw24%
Žilina II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dolný Kubín
1.64
Žilina II
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 98 away

creates per match

Dolný Kubín
1.40
Žilina II
1.30

allows per match

Dolný Kubín
1.70
Žilina II
1.87

finishing

Dolný Kubín+0.00on par
Žilina II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dolný Kubín ↓

Žilina II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Dolný Kubín or draw
65%
Dolný Kubín or Žilina II
76%
Draw or Žilina II
59%

Winning margin

Dolný Kubín wins by 2+
21%
Žilina II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Dolný Kubín 1+ goals
81%
Dolný Kubín 2+ goals
49%
Dolný Kubín 3+ goals
23%
Žilina II 1+ goals
78%
Žilina II 2+ goals
44%
Žilina II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Dolný Kubín (draw refunded)
54%
Žilina II (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dolný Kubín at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.70 · 30 matches

Žilina II away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.87 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dolný Kubín attack 1.40 + Žilina II defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.64

Žilina II attack 1.30 + Dolný Kubín defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dolný Kubín scores more
41%
level
24%
Žilina II scores more
35%

Dolný Kubín at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dolný Kubín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dolný Kubín vs Žilina II

Žilina II beat Dolný Kubín 2-1 in 2. liga on July 29, 2023.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión MUDr. Ivana Chodáka in Dolný Kubín.