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Zibo Qisheng vs Yanbian Longding — League Two 2022

Zibo Qisheng
Zibo Qisheng
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Yanbian Longding
Yanbian Longding
8/12/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 9Dalian Puwan Outfield

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Zibo Qisheng12%
×Draw27%
Yanbian Longding61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zibo Qisheng
0.48
Yanbian Longding
1.42

Yanbian Longding creates 196% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 8 away

creates per match

Zibo Qisheng
0.47
Yanbian Longding
1.25

allows per match

Zibo Qisheng
1.58
Yanbian Longding
0.50

finishing

Zibo Qisheng+0.00on par
Yanbian Longding+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zibo Qisheng ↓

Yanbian Longding →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–121%
0–215%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–02%
2–12%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Zibo Qisheng or draw
39%
Zibo Qisheng or Yanbian Longding
73%
Draw or Yanbian Longding
88%

Winning margin

Zibo Qisheng wins by 2+
3%
Yanbian Longding wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Zibo Qisheng 1+ goals
38%
Zibo Qisheng 2+ goals
8%
Zibo Qisheng 3+ goals
1%
Yanbian Longding 1+ goals
76%
Yanbian Longding 2+ goals
41%
Yanbian Longding 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Zibo Qisheng (draw refunded)
17%
Yanbian Longding (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zibo Qisheng at home — creates 0.47, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

Yanbian Longding away — creates 1.25, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zibo Qisheng attack 0.47 + Yanbian Longding defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.48

Yanbian Longding attack 1.25 + Zibo Qisheng defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Zibo Qisheng scores more
12%
level
27%
Yanbian Longding scores more
61%

Yanbian Longding at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Yanbian Longding will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zibo Qisheng vs Yanbian Longding

Yanbian Longding beat Zibo Qisheng 2-0 in League Two on August 12, 2022.

The match was played at Dalian Puwan Outfield in Dalian.