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Yanbian Longding vs Zibo Qisheng — League Two 2022

Yanbian Longding
Yanbian Longding
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Zibo Qisheng
Zibo Qisheng
7/20/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 5Dalian Dalian Youth Football Training Base No. 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Yanbian Longding34%
×Draw30%
Zibo Qisheng37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yanbian Longding
1.03
Zibo Qisheng
1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 18 away

creates per match

Yanbian Longding
1.00
Zibo Qisheng
0.61

allows per match

Yanbian Longding
1.57
Zibo Qisheng
1.06

finishing

Yanbian Longding+0.00on par
Zibo Qisheng+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yanbian Longding ↓

Zibo Qisheng →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Yanbian Longding or draw
63%
Yanbian Longding or Zibo Qisheng
70%
Draw or Zibo Qisheng
66%

Winning margin

Yanbian Longding wins by 2+
13%
Zibo Qisheng wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Yanbian Longding 1+ goals
64%
Yanbian Longding 2+ goals
28%
Yanbian Longding 3+ goals
9%
Zibo Qisheng 1+ goals
66%
Zibo Qisheng 2+ goals
30%
Zibo Qisheng 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Yanbian Longding (draw refunded)
48%
Zibo Qisheng (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yanbian Longding at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Zibo Qisheng away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yanbian Longding attack 1.00 + Zibo Qisheng defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.03

Zibo Qisheng attack 0.61 + Yanbian Longding defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Yanbian Longding scores more
34%
level
30%
Zibo Qisheng scores more
37%

Zibo Qisheng at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Zibo Qisheng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yanbian Longding vs Zibo Qisheng

Zibo Qisheng beat Yanbian Longding 3-0 in League Two on July 20, 2022.

The match was played at Dalian Dalian Youth Football Training Base No. 10 in Dalian.