Zibo Qisheng 0–1 Tai'an Tiankuang: Result & Stats

Zibo Qisheng

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Tai'an Tiankuang

6/28/2023

League Two · Round 8Zibo Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Zibo Qisheng25%

×Draw28%

Tai'an Tiankuang47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zibo QishengExpected goals in this matchTai'an Tiankuang

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.89

1.33

Zibo Qisheng

0.89

Tai'an Tiankuang

1.33

Tai'an Tiankuang creates 49% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 54 away

0.47

creates per match

1.07

1.58

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Zibo Qisheng

0.47

Tai'an Tiankuang

1.07

allows per match

Zibo Qisheng

1.58

Tai'an Tiankuang

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zibo Qisheng+0.00on par

Tai'an Tiankuang+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zibo Qisheng ↓

Tai'an Tiankuang →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–114%

0–210%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Zibo Qisheng or draw

53%

Zibo Qisheng or Tai'an Tiankuang

72%

Draw or Tai'an Tiankuang

75%

Winning margin

Zibo Qisheng wins by 2+

8%

Tai'an Tiankuang wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Zibo Qisheng 1+ goals

59%

Zibo Qisheng 2+ goals

22%

Zibo Qisheng 3+ goals

6%

Tai'an Tiankuang 1+ goals

74%

Tai'an Tiankuang 2+ goals

38%

Tai'an Tiankuang 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Zibo Qisheng (draw refunded)

35%

Tai'an Tiankuang (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zibo Qisheng at home — creates 0.47, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

Tai'an Tiankuang away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.31 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zibo Qisheng attack 0.47 + Tai'an Tiankuang defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 0.89

Tai'an Tiankuang attack 1.07 + Zibo Qisheng defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Zibo Qisheng scores more

25%

level

28%

Tai'an Tiankuang scores more

47%

Tai'an Tiankuang at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tai'an Tiankuang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff