Tai'an Tiankuang 1–1 Zibo Qisheng: Result & Stats

Tai'an Tiankuang

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Zibo Qisheng

4/30/2023

League Two · Round 1Taishan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Tai'an Tiankuang45%

×Draw30%

Zibo Qisheng25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tai'an TiankuangExpected goals in this matchZibo Qisheng

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.78

Tai'an Tiankuang

1.17

Zibo Qisheng

0.78

Tai'an Tiankuang creates 50% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 18 away

1.27

creates per match

0.61

0.95

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Tai'an Tiankuang

1.27

Zibo Qisheng

0.61

allows per match

Tai'an Tiankuang

0.95

Zibo Qisheng

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tai'an Tiankuang+0.00on par

Zibo Qisheng+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tai'an Tiankuang ↓

Zibo Qisheng →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Tai'an Tiankuang or draw

75%

Tai'an Tiankuang or Zibo Qisheng

70%

Draw or Zibo Qisheng

55%

Winning margin

Tai'an Tiankuang wins by 2+

19%

Zibo Qisheng wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Tai'an Tiankuang 1+ goals

69%

Tai'an Tiankuang 2+ goals

33%

Tai'an Tiankuang 3+ goals

11%

Zibo Qisheng 1+ goals

54%

Zibo Qisheng 2+ goals

18%

Zibo Qisheng 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Tai'an Tiankuang (draw refunded)

65%

Zibo Qisheng (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tai'an Tiankuang at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.95 · 56 matches

Zibo Qisheng away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tai'an Tiankuang attack 1.27 + Zibo Qisheng defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.17

Zibo Qisheng attack 0.61 + Tai'an Tiankuang defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tai'an Tiankuang scores more

45%

level

30%

Zibo Qisheng scores more

25%

Tai'an Tiankuang at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tai'an Tiankuang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff