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Zibo Qisheng vs Shangyu Pterosaur — League Two 2022

Zibo Qisheng
Zibo Qisheng
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Shangyu Pterosaur
Shangyu Pterosaur
8/19/2023League TwoLeague Two · Relegation Round - 1Zibo Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Zibo Qisheng31%
×Draw29%
Shangyu Pterosaur40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zibo Qisheng
0.98
Shangyu Pterosaur
1.16

Shangyu Pterosaur creates 18% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 55 away

creates per match

Zibo Qisheng
0.47
Shangyu Pterosaur
0.73

allows per match

Zibo Qisheng
1.58
Shangyu Pterosaur
1.49

finishing

Zibo Qisheng+0.00on par
Shangyu Pterosaur+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zibo Qisheng ↓

Shangyu Pterosaur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Zibo Qisheng or draw
60%
Zibo Qisheng or Shangyu Pterosaur
71%
Draw or Shangyu Pterosaur
69%

Winning margin

Zibo Qisheng wins by 2+
11%
Shangyu Pterosaur wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Zibo Qisheng 1+ goals
62%
Zibo Qisheng 2+ goals
26%
Zibo Qisheng 3+ goals
8%
Shangyu Pterosaur 1+ goals
69%
Shangyu Pterosaur 2+ goals
32%
Shangyu Pterosaur 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Zibo Qisheng (draw refunded)
44%
Shangyu Pterosaur (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zibo Qisheng at home — creates 0.47, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

Shangyu Pterosaur away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.49 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zibo Qisheng attack 0.47 + Shangyu Pterosaur defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 0.98

Shangyu Pterosaur attack 0.73 + Zibo Qisheng defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Zibo Qisheng scores more
31%
level
29%
Shangyu Pterosaur scores more
40%

Shangyu Pterosaur at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Shangyu Pterosaur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Zibo Qisheng 0–1 Shangyu Pterosaur

Shangyu Pterosaur beat Zibo Qisheng 1-0 in League Two on August 19, 2023.

The match was played at Zibo Sports Center Stadium in Zibo.